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Stimuli, Behavioral, Script and Figure data supporting the study entitled: Brain activity of professional investors signals future stock performance.

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Version 2 2024-02-26, 17:33
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posted on 2024-02-26, 17:33 authored by Leo van BrusselLeo van Brussel, Maarten BoksemMaarten Boksem, Ale SmidtsAle Smidts, Roeland Dietvorst

Abstract:

From April 2019 to February 2020, we used fMRI to collect brain response data of professional investors, while they processed 45 complex real-world investment cases and had to predict long-term stock performance. We then assessed whether the information they processed (stock metric data), their predictions and their brain responses would relate to future performance on the stock market. We report data of 34 participants (two participants were excluded from the study due to excessive head movement during fMRI scanning). The results of our study reveal that professional investors fail to accurately predict long-term stock performance. However, while processing complex information pertaining to investment cases, brain activity in a region associated with reward anticipation was increased for stocks that would end up overperforming in the future market. Remarkably, this effect held after controlling for the stock information (stock metric data) presented in the investment cases. Our findings add to recent work in ‘neuroforecasting’, demonstrating that market behavior can be forecasted by brain activity of a small sample, here of professional investors. The findings of this study are presented in the paper "Brain activity of professional investors signals future stock performance" published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

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Content size

9 MB

Conditions of access

  • Open access

Language

English

Temporal coverage

2019-04-01/2020-03-01

Spatial coverage

The Netherlands

Universe

Professional Investors

Analysis unit

Human brain

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    Rotterdam School of Management

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